Resources

The US Government’s increasing investment in AI represents an unprecedented opportunity for companies willing to align with its strategic priorities. While the road to adoption may vary between agencies, a deep understanding of priorities such as infrastructure, national security, ethics, R&D, and workforce development can set your company up for success in FY25.

In October of 2023, the Biden Administration issued an Executive Order aimed at securing the United States’ leadership in the development and deployment of artificial intelligence while ensuring this technology is used responsibly to protect individual privacy and data. This landmark order sets new standards for AI safety and security, upholds Americans’ privacy, promotes equity and civil rights, safeguards consumers and workers, encourages innovation and competition, and reinforces American leadership on the global stage.

As quantum computing continues to evolve, the security of existing cryptographic systems faces an unprecedented threat. Post-quantum encryption (PQE) is no longer a distant goal; it is a critical, urgent priority. Marion Square has been actively tracking the federal government’s transition to PQE, working closely with both technology companies and government agencies to ensure a smooth and secure transition.

Federal mandates such as NSM-10 and OMB 23-02 have set the course for agencies to begin their PQE journeys. The stakes are high, and failure to meet these mandates could expose critical systems to quantum-enabled adversaries. According to the recent OMB report to Congress, the government is expected to spend approximately $1 billion annually over the next decade on this transition, though many experts predict the true cost could be much higher.

Marion Square is actively working with our partners and clients to understand and map the requirements Federal Agencies have for transitioning to Post Quantum Encryption (PQE). For PQE technology companies, this transition presents a unique opportunity: a growing market with billions in potential federal contracts. 

Marion Square is continually researching Government initiatives and programs to identify key opportunities for our clients.  For those organizations that are focused on providing AI algorithms, infrastructure, and services an interesting, potential opportunity for FY 25 is the Dept of Energy’s (DOE) -Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence for Science, Security, and Technology- or FASST initiative.

As Artificial Intelligence (AI) becomes an engine driving innovation across industries, its role in the Federal government is accelerating at an unprecedented pace. With FY 2025 federal funding poised to fuel AI initiatives across all agencies, it’s clear that AI has transcended from being a technological trend to a national priority.

Understanding and strategically leveraging this tiered structure will be crucial for companies looking to accelerate their go-to-market (GTM) strategies and secure contracts that matter.

With the recent release of the NIST Post Quantum Encryption (PQE) standards (NIST Releases First 3 Finalized Post-Quantum Encryption Standards | NIST) we at Marion Square anticipate there will be a focus from Federal Agencies in FY 25 to become compliant with the White House Executive Order and National Security Memo for Post Quantum Cryptography.

At Marion Square, our Market Research Analysts are continually following current and upcoming federal spending trends. Cybersecurity is always on our watchlist due to the critical need and continual update and modernization requirements. Insider threat is one we have seen recently pick up again (in recent years, the Government has been spending mostly O&M dollars on Insider Threat).

A question we at Marion Square get asked often is “when can I expect my first Government sale to close?”. This answer to this question has many ‘depends on’ factors, but overall, the realistic expectation to closing your first Government sale could be anywhere from 6-18 months (or more) once you’ve executed your sales plan. The Federal sales process is more complex than the commercial sales process, leading to a longer closing timeframe.

Marion Square’s mission is to enable our clients to build successful government businesses through in-depth market research, actionable key insights and detailed data and funding analysis coupled with highly effective sales execution services.

Our market assessment engagement focuses on providing organizations with these critical market insights and information that will enable them to better understand the federal market for their technology. With this information, organizations can best determine where to invest their resources for the greatest and most likely return.

Webinar Recording from 5/8/24

At Marion Square, we rely on market research to point our clients in the right direction for funding, with the ultimate goal of creating a healthy and solid pipeline. Each year, the Federal Government releases their budget request for the following fiscal year in March (FY25’s budget requests were just released this past March) – while there is still some time before it gets passed, it’s important to review the budget to identify where agencies are planning on spending their money to create a successful Federal Go To Market.

Our clients are always looking for new ways to get in front of potential Government customers and meeting new teaming partners. One of our primary recommendations is to participate in Government hosted Industry Days. Industry Days are typically held by a specific Program Management Office (PMO) soliciting and gathering vital information for an upcoming Request for Proposal (RFP).

In today’s session we want to discuss Open Source Intelligence market, how this market has changed with the introduction of social media and more recently AI, and some of the key areas Government is seeking assistance to help with their OSINT programs. We will also review the key resources that Carahsoft and Marion Square has to offer in this expanding market.

Webinar Recording from 3/26/24

According to market analysis the space is large, around $7B today, and is expected to grow at 28% CAGR annually thru 2030 when the market will be approximately $36B. Global Open Source Intelligence Market Size $36,241.2Mn 2030 (custommarketinsights.com) Law Enforcement followed by Government Intelligence Agencies and Defense Intelligence Agencies are by far the largest customers for OSINT technologies.

Prepare for PQE: M-23-18 (whitehouse.gov)- June 2023

• Ensure that requirements under:

o NSM-10-US becomes a leader in QIS while mitigating risks to systems vulnerable to Cryptographic Resistant Quantum Computer. )CRQC)

o M-23-02-provides guidance on transitioning to PQE

o NMM-2022-09- outlines Zero Trust Security principles

are made transparent in FY 25 Budget submissions.

You are going to hear more and more about Quantum in the coming months and years, more specifically mandates and orders regarding Quantum and Post Quantum Encryption. The latest estimates are that a viable Quantum Computer which can crack the current encryption algorithms (RSA, Elliptical Curve, Diffie Hellam) could be less than 10 years away and with transition times (from existing solutions to Post Quantum and Quantum solutions) estimated at between 5 and 7 years the Federal government is beginning to take notice of the risks Quantum Computers pose to national security.

Late last year, I had the opportunity to participate in an In-Q-Tel (IQT) webinar and present the concept and value of determining the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for Government to IQT portfolio companies. In the commercial space, the TAM is everyone/every organization that a company could potentially sell to, the TAM we at Marion Square have developed for Government, takes this to a more detailed level. Since Government agencies are strictly confined by their budget cycles and certification requirements (think FedRAMP) we believe organizations should take these items into consideration when developing their TAM.

As the 2023 year comes to an end, we wanted to round up the content we’ve curated throughout the year in an easy to review eBook. At Marion Square, we are continually researching new technology trends, opportunities and initiatives within the Government. We hope you find this useful as you're planning your Federal sales strategy for 2024!

Marion Square attended Carahsoft’s 3rd Annual Marketing Summit on November 1st, 2023. Co-Founder and CEO Harvey Morrison presented with Carahsoft’s Vice President, Mike Shrader to discuss best practices for both large and small vendors looking to sell to the Federal Government.

The overarching theme around a CR to keep in mind is that CR's reduce the amount of time an agency has to complete a solicitation. Instead of a 12 month window to conduct market research, identify contracting vehicles and approaches to procurement, meet with vendors, etc agencies timeframes are compressed. If the FY 24 budgets aren't approved until Dec (which is the current consensus) then agencies will only have 9 to 10 months to complete their work or risk loosing their funding at year end.

The FY 24 budget includes $210B for federal research and development (R&D), this is the largest ever investment for Federal R&D.

Artificial Intelligence R&D is a main focus area for FY 24 investment with several agencies requesting $1B to fund AI research projects and programs in areas such as:

• Facial recognition technology

• Drone systems

• Systems to analyze large amounts of data

• Cyber Security

• Post Quantum Cryptography is becoming a focus area with the release of May 22nd National Security Memo- initial standards are being released by NIST. Though the FY 2024 budget request sees several investments in advancing quantum computing R&D, contractors will begin to see funding and needs in cyber budgets for PQC transitions as early as FY 2025.

The US Government is signaling its future cyber priorities with a recently released OMB Memo M-23-18 "The Administrations Cyber Priorities for FY 25" M-23-18 (whitehouse.gov). The memo instructs Federal Agencies to prioritize budgeting/funding around the key initiatives specifically outlined within the memo. In reading the memo, one will notice that several of the priorities are a continuation of funded initiatives that are currently going through the budget approval process as part of the FY24 budget.

Over the last couple of months there has been quite a bit of news regarding the recently passed Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) which raised the US Government debt limit until Jan 1 2025. Vendors who sell to the US Government are wondering what effects this bill will have on Federal spending in the coming years and how best to plan and execute their Government go to market sales strategies.

At Marion Square, we continually research and analyze Federal Agency IT budgets and key spend priorities for our clients. This time of year, is especially busy because agencies have begun releasing and justifying their budget requests for FY24. This information provides organizations selling into Government with critical insights into key Government spending priorities and trends for the upcoming fiscal year, which is only 5 months away.

The Federal Government’s FY24 budge request includes record R&D requests, specifically for critical and emerging technologies (CET), artificial intelligence (AI), cyber, citizen experience, quantum and 5G.

The Administration has stated that the2024 budget request aims to tap into the strengths of cutting-edge technologies like digital identity and artificial intelligence (AI) while restructuring the security capabilities of software and cloud services used by the Federal Government.

Marion Square continues to highlight the importance of not only understanding the landscape regarding budgets, funded programs, and initiatives, but also the criticality of ensuring your message and go to market sales motions are "tuned" for a Government audience.

Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning and Quantum Computing - Specifically Post Quantum Cryptography are two high priority emerging technologies the Federal Government is spending on.

Marion Square’s Co-Founders Harvey Morrison and Greg Imahara attended the recently completed AFWERX Innovation Conference held in San Antonio Texas. (2023 Innovation Industry Days (eventsquid.com))

The conference was attended by over 100 innovative technology companies that are interested in the AFWERX/SpaceWerx SBIR/STTR programs and key program offices inside of both AFWERX and SpaceWerx.